Last night at LATE at the Museum, we witnessed a spirited discussion from some very intelligent minds. In a discussion focused on environmental and economic impacts of migration in a global age, eminent speakers Rod Oram (left) and Dr. John Merson (right) gave a worthwhile summary of how New Zealand is likely to stack up in the era ahead marked by climate change.
Moderated by Finlay Macdonald (centre), the talk explored far more than the title suggested and delved into the complex economic, social, environmental, and political relationships that are pivotal to understand when addressing climate change.
In front of a standing room only crowd, Dr. Merson took a strong position that much of the challenge ahead lies in challenging our social norms and changing our everyday habits and views. He noted that economics and the markets they spawn are directly responsible for the environmental consequences of what business does-- in many cases, the pollution/distruction of our environment.
Mr. Oram made the case that from a government point of view, market drivers play a big part in making change happen, which is why there has been contentious debate around the proposed Emissions Trading Scheme (or ETS). While an ETS is only one part of the equation, Mr. Oram raised the point that we only pay attention to what we value, and if carbon has a measured value, it can be managed throughout business models.
He gave a rather interesting snapshot of how this would be likely to effect New Zealand's prominant dairy industry: each year, according to Fonterra, for every litre of milk, 1 kg of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) are generated. This amounts to a whopping 15 million tonnes of GHGs annually. While attributing some cost to these GHGs has the farming industry up in arms squealing apocalypse, Mr. Oram seems to think they're missing the point. Each kg of GHGs equates to wasted nutrients.
If farmers could farm more efficently, close the loop on many of their farming practices, they could actually save an incredible amount of money in the longer term and manage their land better. He noted that in New Zealand we have huge potential to be world leaders in redefining how ruminants are farmed, but our research budgets in this area to date have been really small. We could be developing some leading technology and proprietary know-how, but so far have missed the bus.
Dr. Merson, while optimistic to a point on technology helping save us, he noted that technology and ETS are just tools in a larger toolbox. Markets are crtically important, but not the only tool, and unfortunately the main focus to date has been on mitigation of climate change effects. Due to a 30 year lag time on emissions and the reality they present for us, time is not no our side. The way we live is not sustainable and with each day that passes we are affecting the hroizon of what will face our children and grandchildren. More than a reliance on mitigation is needed. With it, the conversation turned more towards adaptation and some serious questions were raised.
He noted that in the years ahead, a likely 1.5 metre rise in sea levels would take place, affecting many crowded population centres worldwide from New York to Bangkok. What happens to all these people living coastally? What are our moral implications in New Zealand? Are we to take them in? What is the scale of confrontation that we are facing? He emphasised that we do not have the luxury of disconnecting ourselves globally from what is happening around us, and especially not from our neighbours on Pacific atolls. Unfortunately, planning for this likely monumental shift in humanity in the coming years and the migratory challenges it suggests has barely surfaced on the radar of policy makers.
Mr. Oram confirmed that climate meetings later this year in Copenhagen are unlikely to yield a full blown climate treaty, but should hopefully help get countries worldwide on a better trajectory, especially if the U.S. is involved to any serious level. Painfully absent at the Kyoto negotiations, U.S. involvement is critical to the adoption of any worldwide agreement as it amounts to a credible shift in values.
Quick to make sure that the emphasis was not left on governments to do all the work, Dr. Merson shifted footing to personal responsibility, and also noted that the time has come to move beyond functioning as independent nation states for issues that cross all international borders. With or without governments, people around the world need to embrace the ideals of equity, mutuality, and interconnectedness. As time is running out and we are already behind the 8-ball, it is of vital interest to take personal action, to lobby government, and to send signals to the market that a shift is needed.
He cited several recent corporate incidents with GE and GM that have been in response to consumer behaviour and investor lobbying, as well as the Montreal Protocol on CFCs as success stories in how people have come together worldwide to make big shifts happen.
Confirming the position, Mr. Oram noted that governments follow people, and that we each must help drive the change forward. We are going to need to get comfortable and excited about changing, understanding economic and social pressures, and get a better appreciation of the interdependence of the global scene. Success in combating climate change will come with a significant movement of human ingenuity and creativity to tackle the problems we face.
It was a really positive point to end with, and a really great segue to the rest of the evening's programming, which included musical appearances from New Zealand's Ladi6 (right) and King Kapisi. It was some good food for thought with a positive soundtrack to help it all sink in.
For more on upcoming events at Auckland Museum, check out www.lateatthemuseum.com